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Week 6
Oct 2, 2017 10:22:34 GMT -5
Post by AlwaysInjured14 on Oct 2, 2017 10:22:34 GMT -5
Div I
1. Pick North 2. Gahanna 3. Jerome 4. Coffman 5. Bradley 6. Olentangy 7. Darby 7. Orange 7. Upper Arlington 10. Liberty Receiving votes: Grove City, Canal, DeSales, New Albany
Div II
1. Granville 2. Big Walnut 3. Alder 4. Buckeye Valley 5. Bloom Carroll 6. Bexley 7. Hartley
Div III
1. Grandview Hts 2. Worthington Christian 3. Fairbanks 4. Columbus Academy 5. Wellington 6. CSG 7. Johnstown Monroe
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Week 6
Oct 2, 2017 10:26:34 GMT -5
Post by AlwaysInjured14 on Oct 2, 2017 10:26:34 GMT -5
Ok, this was very different than I expected. Gahanna with a loss and a tie - ? Jerome jumps Coffman, even though Coffman beat Jerome?! Darby has to be the most upset and feeling the most under-rated. While they lost to Jerome, I believe they tied Coffman.. I guess I forgot they lost to Olentangy as well...not sure where else to put them other than 7 unless you put them ahead of Bradley? But Bradley beat Gahanna. Upper Arlington has probably seen its last week in the top 10 and Grove City/Canal/New Albany have a shot to make it in if they have a good week. OK, maybe this is a good poll but Gahanna should have probably dropped a bit after this week. I knew this would be a tough week for voters. This is the last poll before tournament draw!
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Post by Birdofprey on Oct 2, 2017 11:19:16 GMT -5
My opinion is teams that defend well will be the ones that take the top seed positions. Right now those teams showing goals allowed are: North - 7 Gahanna - 6 Coffman - 8 Olentangy - 9
These teams will be in every game and referee quality will increase significantly so the crazy calls should drop come tournament time.
On any given night, Jerome, Darby, and Liberty could knock off any team seeded above them. North is the clear favorite to win the region. It would be a good idea for teams to start working on shootout order and practicing kicks from the spot.
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Week 6
Oct 3, 2017 10:32:52 GMT -5
Post by AlwaysInjured14 on Oct 3, 2017 10:32:52 GMT -5
I have been thinking about your post and goals against and how it compares to a good defense. Clearly, it does. And clearly, the teams above do not play cake schedules at all. I am also wondering how the number of shut-outs that a team has can relate to their defense. If it does at all? Which leads to whether or not a goal or two in several games vs a lot of goals in a couple games is better or worse? This may be splitting defensive hairs far more than necessary and evaluating a team in a way that really has no bearing, but to me a defense who can be scoreless more often than not is a more solid defense - even if there are a few off-nights where a team gets whipped. But I am not committed to that position, I've just been mulling it over for a few hours. I wondered if the 4 teams above also had the most shut-outs and here is what I found (this assumes the teams have played a similar number of games by this point...and assumes the box scores are complete and correct):
North - 6 Gahanna - 6 Coffman - 6 Olentangy - 6 HOW INTERESTING IS THAT? It definitely put the lower goals and shut-outs into perspective and convinced me that the defenses for these teams are a significant part of their wins.
But wait:
Canal Winchester - 7 Hilliard Bradley - 7 New Albany - 6
The teams that we've been wondering how/why they are doing as well as they are doing. Canal only has 8 goals against as well. Surely the teams they have played are a bit different than the teams Pick North has played, but it's an interesting stat. New Albany is at 12 goals against and Bradley at 15 - so they have all stayed similar to the top teams.
Interestingly: Jerome 15 goals against with only 3 shut-outs. Liberty 16 goals against and 2 shut-outs. **Again, the goals against could possibly be off based on incorrect box scores or games I missed counting.
I think that the teams that have met or surpassed expectation have a combined high shut-out ratio to games played and lower goals against. I know this isn't rocket science - or any kind of amazing discovery, but it has sure played out well to determine the top teams this year. Certainly there could be teams that score a lot but also get scored on frequently and have an offense that outpaces their defense, but that doesn't seem to be the case in the top 6 or 7 teams this season.
Thanks Birdofprey for giving me something to think about.
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Post by Birdofprey on Oct 3, 2017 12:34:29 GMT -5
Thanks Always.....
I’m a firm believer in the saying: offense sales tickets but defense wins championships.
If you follow the Premier League, Leicester City won the cup by playing great defense and having Jamie Vardy score on counterattacks. Great defending teams don’t need to dominate possession to get a 1-0 result.
Officials can be the wildcard in close games where free kicks can be the difference. I’ve stopped counting the number of corners and offside calls made by A/Rs that aren’t in position to make the calls. Penalty decisions have to right 100% of the time. The crews will be better in the tournament but the season wears down officials just like it does players.
I watch college soccer whenever I can and the best teams don’t concede goals no matter how good the opposing forwards are.
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Week 6
Oct 4, 2017 5:37:41 GMT -5
Post by AlwaysInjured14 on Oct 4, 2017 5:37:41 GMT -5
Last night's effect on the Top 10:
Probable Negative Impacts: Jerome: 2-2 tie with Delaware; Losses to: Strongsville, Walsh Jesuit, Coffman, Liberty and Tie: Delaware Bradley: 0-0 tie with Scioto; Losses to: Beavercreek, Anthony Wayne, Jerome and Ties: Scioto and Westerville Central Olentangy: 2-3 loss to Orange; Losses to: Coffman, Pick North, Orange; Ties: Westerville Central, Westerville North, Upper Arlington Upper Arlington: 0-0 tie with Marysville; Losses to: Gahanna, Davidson, Jerome, Bradley; Ties: Marysville, Olentangy, Westerville Central
Positive or No Impact: Pick North: 6-0 win over Reynoldsburg (expected); 1 tie - Gahanna Darby: 2-0 win over Thomas worthington (expected); Losses to Jerome, Olentangy; Ties Coffman, Watterson Liberty: 2-0 win over Westerville Central (should be expected but WC has tied a lot of good teams, so positive impact); Losses to: Bradley, Gahanna, Orange, Pick North; Ties: Westerville South, Centerville, Coffman Gahanna: 4-0 win Lancaster (expected); Loss: Bradley; Ties: granville, grove city, Pick North Coffman: 4-0 win Central Crossing (expected); Loss - Pick North; Ties: Liberty, Marysville, Darby Orange: 3-2 win over Olentangy; Losses: Jerome, Grove City, Davidson, Walsh Jesuit, Watterson; Tie: New Albany
What does this do to voting for Friday/Saturday?
My new predictions:
1. Pick North - 11 wins 2. Coffman - 8 wins 3. Gahanna - 8 wins 4. Jerome - 7 wins 5. Bradley - 10 wins 6. Darby - 8 wins 7. Liberty - 6 wins 8. Olentangy - 8 win 9. Orange - 6 wins 10. Canal/New Albany/Grove City cracks top 10 and UA moves out
I feel pretty confident in the top 7 - 8/9/10/11/12/13 a little less confident.
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Post by Birdofprey on Oct 4, 2017 7:34:09 GMT -5
Good work Always. There are some good matches coming up on Thursday that will sort out the top 10.
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Post by ohiosoccer1 on Oct 4, 2017 8:59:30 GMT -5
I agree with you AlwaysInjured, good analysis. I think that is how it should look, but not so sure it will come out that way. Lots of coaches will seed purely on records, as that is the info they are given. Now the more motivated ones will either know some context behind each team, or will look up their schedules and go from there. But at least half of the coaches in the district won't do any extra research. Think about how many city league teams there are alone. They'll rank the best records on top and the worst on bottom. At least thats what it sounds like has happened in prior years.
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 8:04:40 GMT -5
Post by Birdofprey on Oct 6, 2017 8:04:40 GMT -5
My top 10: North Gahanna / Coffman Coffman / Gahanna Jerome Orange - winner of the Buckeye division Olentangy Liberty Darby Bradley Canal - only 10 goals allowed
I don’t see any team hitting on all cylinders right now. I still think the final 4 will be teams that are solid in the back. Liberty might be playing the best of the Olentangy team right now. I’m not convinced Gahanna has enough offense to win a District. They could be the hunted at Sunday’s draw meeting.
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 11:58:24 GMT -5
Post by ohiosoccer1 on Oct 6, 2017 11:58:24 GMT -5
Will they do another poll this week, given the tournament draw? Anybody know?
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 12:34:16 GMT -5
Post by dinoswatercooler on Oct 6, 2017 12:34:16 GMT -5
There will be a poll this week. For next week the results of the seeding is typically used, and I think that's the final poll for the year.
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 12:39:46 GMT -5
Post by Birdofprey on Oct 6, 2017 12:39:46 GMT -5
Looking back there was a final poll last year. I didn’t check to see if it mirrored the seeding positions. I think we will get a final on 10/16 that will reflect games played through 10/12.
Once the brackets are done, non-conference games are of little meaning. I would expect players will be rested for games that have no consequence unless it is for an undefeated season or something. Even then, why risk an injury heading into the tournament. I think the last weekend of the regular season will show bench strength against bench strength.
The only thing that matters now is which teams play for a District championship (the medal round). There’s usually a higher seed that makes it. Last year, it was Olentangy at #9 that was in the final 8. Davidson was the only top 8 seed to lose going into the district finals.
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 12:51:38 GMT -5
Post by ohiosoccer1 on Oct 6, 2017 12:51:38 GMT -5
Last year I think there was one corner of the bracket that had none of the top 8 seeds in it, before the district finals. I think that was the Olentangy bracket, but not sure, I'd have to double check.
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Week 6
Oct 6, 2017 22:04:33 GMT -5
Post by AlwaysInjured14 on Oct 6, 2017 22:04:33 GMT -5
Last year I think there was one corner of the bracket that had none of the top 8 seeds in it, before the district finals. I think that was the Olentangy bracket, but not sure, I'd have to double check. Yep. You're right. The Olentangy part of the bracket.
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Post by Birdofprey on Oct 7, 2017 20:37:27 GMT -5
From a dab: D1 Girls: 1 - Pickerington North 2 - Dublin Coffman 3 - Gahanna Lincoln 4 - Dublin Jerome
D2 Girls: 1 - Granville 2 - Big Walnut 3 - Jonathan Alder 4 - Bloom-Carroll
D3 Girls: 1 - Grandview 2 - Columbus Academy 3 - Fairbanks 4 - Wellington
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